Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
