Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
